ISTANBUL
Climate change could raise the risk of city fires around the world in the coming decades, according to new study published Monday by the online journal Nature Cities.
For the study, researchers examined fire data and monthly maximum temperatures from over 2,800 cities across 20 countries, covering over 20% of the global population.
If global warming surpasses 4 degrees Celsius, an estimated 300,000 fire-related deaths and over a million injuries could occur worldwide by 2100, but limiting warming to below 1.5C could reduce these impacts by half.
In a high-emission scenario, the study predicts a 22.2% rise in outdoor fires and an 11.6% increase in vehicle fires by 2100, while building fires may decline by 4.6%.
For every 1C increase in air temperature, vehicle fires would rise by 3.3%, and outdoor fires by 6.9%, it said.
The study also analyzed how climate change affects the frequency of urban fires, including those in buildings, vehicles, and outdoor areas like landfills. The strongest link between fires and climate change was found in New Zealand, where city fires could increase by 40% by 2100 with unmitigated warming above 4C.
The researchers believe their findings can guide the development of new fire prevention strategies, such as improved fire fuel management.
They also noted that the analysis lacks data from Africa and South America and may not fully account for the rise in electric vehicles affecting vehicle fires.
