President Bola Tinubu’s administration has sunk Nigeria’s economy into new depths, bleeding the nation to a revenue-to-GDP of 2.6 per cent, “among the lowest globally”, a rebased GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics released in August stated.
Although the rebasing, updated from the base year 2010 to 2019, showed that the nominal GDP rose from N269.3 trillion in 2010 to N364.6 trillion in 2024, the economy was performing worse in terms of dollar denomination. Despite the increase, Nigerians face the harsh reality of a currency whose value has eroded amid skyrocketing inflation.
“Debt-to-GDP appears lower at 40.6 per cent in 2024, potentially suggesting more fiscal space; however, revenue-to-GDP is just 2.6 per cent, among the lowest globally, which limits the government’s real capacity,” the bureau said.
The NBS blamed the sluggish economy on Mr Tinubu’s naira depreciation policy, which obliterated its purchasing power among its international counterparts. A dollar exchanged for as high as N1,600 per Mr Tinubu’s free float, which he implemented days after assuming office in June 2023.
“In dollar terms, the economy has shrunk drastically, from a peak of US$636.7 billion in 2022 to US$246.5 billion in 2024, driven by currency depreciation,” stated the bureau. “Similarly, using a modest population growth rate of 2.5 per cent, GDP per capita has collapsed from US$2,914 to US$1,036 over the same period, reflecting weaker purchasing power and lower welfare.”
The report revealed that some sectors had yet to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that it took longer than anticipated for the majority of sectors to resume operations at full capacity.
The industrial sector, including manufacturing, construction, and oil and gas, suffered double-digit declines after the pandemic.
“Per capita GDP in U.S. dollar terms fell from US$2,913.78 in 2022 to US$1,035.91 in 2024, a decline that places Nigeria 33rd in Africa despite being the continent’s fourth-largest economy,” the NBS stated.
The bureau advised the government and citizens not to be deceived by robust statistical figures into complacency but rather to focus on accelerating revenue reforms in non-oil taxation and digital tax reforms, “shifting from incremental budgets to performance-based allocations and deepening financial intermediation through credit market reforms, stronger institutions, and capital market diversification to fund growth.”
