ISTANBUL
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) scientists have officially ruled out the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032, with the latest analysis reducing the risk to just 0.001% after months of fluctuating predictions.
The near-Earth asteroid, measuring between 40 and 90 meters (131 to 295 feet) wide, was first discovered late last year by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile.
Initially, impact probabilities fluctuated, at one point rising to nearly 3% as astronomers refined its trajectory.
However, recent data from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (ESO’s VLT) and other facilities worldwide have significantly narrowed its orbital path – confirming it will safely pass Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
Paul Chodas, head of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, reassured the public that there is now no possibility of an impact.
“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure,” Chodas said in an email, according to Fast Company.
ESO astronomer Olivier Hainut explained the initial uncertainty in tracking an asteroid’s trajectory.
“Because of the uncertainties, the orbit of the asteroid is like the beam of a flashlight: getting broader and broader and fuzzier in the distance. As we observe more, the beam becomes sharper and narrower. The narrower beam is now moving away from Earth,” he said, according to Cosmos.
Ongoing vigilance in planetary defense
The confirmation follows an expected pattern in asteroid tracking, where impact probabilities often rise before dropping to zero as more precise measurements refine orbital calculations.
The International Asteroid Warning Network has now concluded its activities related to the asteroid, and ESA has downgraded it to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
While Earth is no longer at risk, NASA scientists noted that there remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, though they expect this probability to decrease as further observations continue.
Meanwhile, experts emphasize the need for continued vigilance in tracking potentially hazardous objects to safeguard the planet.
“With the deployment of new asteroid survey technologies, such as ESA’s Flyeye telescopes, we are likely to detect an increasing number of similar objects passing close to Earth that we would have missed in the past,” said European Space Agency said in a statement.
