Nigeria’s minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, has revealed that the Nigerian government missed its 2025 fiscal-year target by N30 trillion.
Mr Edun, who made the development known on Tuesday during an interactive session with the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning, noted that the development has raised concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s public finances.
The session was convened to discuss the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
According to the finance minister, the federal government had projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue for 2025 to finance the ₦54.9 trillion “budget of restoration,” which was designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace, and rebuild prosperity.
He, however, said actual revenue performance had fallen significantly short of expectations, with total inflows for the year now projected to close at about ₦10.7 trillion.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around ₦10.7 trillion, compared with the ₦40.8 trillion that was projected,” Mr Edun revealed to the lawmakers.
He attributed the failure to meet the target largely to weak oil and gas revenues, particularly lower-than-expected collections from petroleum profit tax and company income tax paid by oil and gas companies.
The minister also cited underperformance across several non-oil revenue subheads, compounding the pressure on government finances.
Mr Edun disclosed that the government had borrowed about ₦14.1 trillion during the year to bridge the funding gap created by the revenue shortfall.
He, however, said the government had continued to meet its key obligations through “prudent and disciplined treasury management,” despite the revenue fall.
The minister noted that salaries, statutory transfers to subnational governments, and critical domestic and external debt service obligations had been paid as and when due.
Providing an update on expenditure performance, Mr Edun said capital releases to ministries, departments, and agencies in 2024 stood at ₦5.2 trillion out of a budgeted ₦7.1 trillion, representing about 73 per cent performance.
The minister further warned against rigid expenditure commitments tied to oil revenues, urging lawmakers and fiscal planners to adopt a more flexible budgeting approach.
He noted that over-reliance on optimistic oil projections had repeatedly created budget implementation challenges in recent years.
“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must be based on what actually comes in, not what we hope to earn,” Mr Edun said.
He added that when multilateral and bilateral funded projects were included, total capital expenditure amounted to ₦11.1 trillion out of ₦13.7 trillion, or approximately 84 per cent.
