By Haitham Al-Ghais: Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The world will require more electricity in the decades to come, but it will also need more from almost all other energy sources. The future is not about focusing on one particular energy and conveniently forgetting the role of others. Today we hear much talk of the ‘Age of Electricity’, but that is not fully switched on. The future should be about the ‘Age of all Energies’ and an understanding of how important each energy is to others.
Four points illustrate some of the blind spots in the discourse around electrification.
First, the ‘electrification of everything’ has a material reality. That reality is more stuff. The so-called ‘Age of Electricity’ depends on adding hardware everywhere. It is device and equipment intensive. It means filling homes, offices, cars and cities with more and more things. The production and delivery of such equipment utilize international supply chains, with materials making multiple journeys, often crisscrossing the globe, before the final assembly line. These logistics are overwhelmingly dominated by petroleum powered transportation modes.
Additionally, more electrification will also lead to an ‘Age of More Cables and Chargers.’ Each gadget that it depends on adds at least one power brick and cable. Many will add two or three. This means dozens of separate chargers, low-voltage power supplies and leads, and, in the case of electric vehicles (EV), the heavy cable and fixed internal wiring that tie this all together.
Second, electrifying everything means more petroleum-derived products. The devices this goal depends on are plastic intensive. Plastic insulation and jackets will be needed for cables. Chargers and power blocks are plastic shells around transformers. These devices also require packaging, often made from plastic material.
Some electrified technologies require substantially more plastic components than the traditional systems they replace. For example, a mid-sized EV is likely to contain 45% more plastic and polymer composites than a similarly sized petrol or diesel model. The petrochemical requirements for ‘electrification’ are often overlooked. They did not receive much attention in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Special Report on Electrification written in advance of COP31.
Moreover, from the perspective of EVs, it is important to remember the other challenges facing their expansion, such as the availability of critical minerals, public charging capacity, subsidies and the market realities impacting both manufacturers and consumers.
Third, as OPEC has written repeatedly, petroleum and petroleum-derived products are essential for manufacturing, maintaining and installing electricity grids. These include cables, overhead lines, pylons, transformers, substations, and control systems. As high-voltage subsea cables proliferate, this will see a surge in demand for specialized plastics and polymers.
Fourth, petroleum-derived products are important for electricity generation, regardless of the source. On average, 15% of the weight of a wind turbine is made from petroleum-derived materials like fiberglass, resin or plastic. About 10% of a typical crystalline silicon solar panel is made from plastic. Petroleum-derived products are essential across value chains for manufacturing, building and transporting renewable technologies.
This underscores the fact that energy sources are not locked in a zero-sum game where growth in one results in decline for another. They do not operate in silos. All energies will be required to meet global energy demand growth, address energy poverty that continues to impact billions around the world and provide energy security.
Rather than neatly categorizing energy eras based on sources, perhaps it will be useful to recognize their interdependence and the reality that we are in the ‘Age of all Energies’. OPEC supports the COP31 Presidency and we hope that this message resonates at the upcoming conference, as climate matters are addressed.
Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of DIPLOMATICINFO
