Ukraine just lost its first Patriot launchers, and probably their crews.
A Russian drone operator’s persistence and good fortune paid off on or right before Saturday, when they located—outside of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine—a Ukrainian convoy including, it seems, at least two truck-mounted quad-launchers for a Patriot surface-to-air missile battery.
Responding more swiftly than usual, a Russian Iskander hypersonic surface-to-surface missile crew took aim—and scored a direct hit on the Ukrainian convoy from potentially hundreds of miles away. Two of the apparent Patriot launchers exploded, almost certainly killing their crews.
It was the first time in Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine that the Russians have managed to find and target part of a Ukrainian Patriot battery. And for the Russians, the hit couldn’t have come at a more pivotal time.
Ukrainian Patriot batteries in the last month have shot down as many as a dozen Russian air force fighter-bombers, blunting Russia’s aerial advantage as the wider war grinds into its third year.
Indeed, it’s possible the launchers and crews that Iskander struck this week, 20 miles from the front line, were the very same launchers and crews who shot down many of those Russian jets. The air over eastern Ukraine may have gotten a lot safer for the Russians.
Ukraine’s air-defense corps surely is reeling. The air-defenders, who are under air force control, have just three Patriot batteries—likely with radars and between four and eight launchers—plus four spare launchers. Two batteries and two spare launchers came from Germany; the United States donated one battery; The Netherlands donated two launchers.
All that is to say, the Ukrainians lost—in one calamity—up to 13 percent of their Patriot launchers. Or seven percent if the Ukrainian batteries each have eight launchers.
The mobile launchers are critical components—along with radars, command stations and missile-reloads—of Ukraine’s best air-defenses. Patriot PAC-2 missiles have swatted down potentially dozens of Russian aircraft and, if you believe Ukrainian claims, hundreds of drones and missiles. A maneuverable PAC-2 ranges as far as 90 miles.
Ironically, Patriots routinely shoot down the hypersonic Iskanders. But only when the batteries are deployed and alert, rather than convoying from one firing position to the next.
It’s unclear why the Ukrainian Patriot crews didn’t have their own air-defense cover while traveling. It’s possible the Ukrainian air force is stretched too thin protecting Ukrainian cities and ground troops also to protect itself.
Although to be clear, cracks are appearing in the air-defense coverage of the ground forces, too. Just this week, the Russians claimed another first-ever kill: locating by drone and striking, with another Iskander, a Ukrainian army High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System launcher.
However overextended Ukraine’s air-defenders were before the Russians blew up two of their Patriot launchers and likely killed their experienced crews, the air-defenders are even more overextended now. And they may struggle to replace those lost launchers.
That’s because U.S. firm Raytheon is the sole builder of Patriot hardware, although a German partner does contribute to the production of Patriot missiles. Ukraine or one of its allies could get in line to buy replacement launchers to replace the two the Russians just destroyed, but that purchase could take months if not years and cost millions of dollars Kyiv likely hasn’t budgeted for.
No, Ukraine tends to get its Patriot batteries and missiles as donations. And while Germany, The Netherlands or some other European operator could gift more hardware, it’s most expedient for it to come from the source. The United States.
But Russia-friendly Republicans in the U.S. Congress have, since October, been blocking further U.S. aid to Ukraine. So every Patriot launcher the Ukrainians lose is a Patriot launcher they can’t easily replace.
