- ‘There are cracks in US-Europe relations, but they also share very deep ties … I believe it is very unlikely that China will suddenly substitute, even partially, the US as Europe’s preferred partner,’ says University of Exeter’s Andrea Ghiselli
- ‘Developments of recent days do not obviate the EU’s concerns about China, particularly Beijing’s deepening partnership with Moscow,’ says International Crisis Group’s Ali Wyne
- ‘China will benefit to the extent that the US alienates other countries. The US is a huge economy, but right now, it’s basically going alone,’ says Chinese analyst Einar Tangen
ISTANBUL
As tensions mount between the US and Europe over a range of global issues, experts believe China is poised to benefit strategically from the ongoing divisions, particularly as Washington risks alienating some of its closest allies.
Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, relations between the EU and the US have shifted dramatically, with deepening differences over key issues such as tariffs, NATO defense spending, the war in Ukraine, climate change policies, artificial intelligence, and technology regulations.
As European nations brace for more turbulence from across the Atlantic, analysts suggest that China may seek to capitalize on the widening transatlantic rift by fostering closer ties with the EU.
A recent instance of this was witnessed at the Munich Security Conference, where American and European officials clashed, while China sought to position itself as a more cooperative partner.
During the conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi extended a diplomatic hand to Europe, calling for collaboration to “steer the world toward a bright future of peace, security, prosperity, and progress.”
He emphasized China’s desire to work with the EU for a “prosperous” global order, stating that Beijing views Europe as “an important pole in a multipolar world” rather than a rival.
Commenting on China’s approach to the growing transatlantic tensions, Beijing-based political analyst Einar Tangen said the situation presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its influence.
“China will benefit to the extent that the US alienates other countries. The US is a huge economy, but right now, it’s basically going alone,” Einar, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, told Anadolu.
He further noted that countries are increasingly reassessing their relations with Washington.
“This is not China versus the US versus Europe. This is a situation where the US is taking on the entire world … even its closest ally and neighbor, Canada, is being subjected to the same kind of harsh penalties,” he said.
Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter and head of research at the TOChina Hub’s ChinaMed Project, echoed this sentiment.
“There is no doubt that weaker transatlantic relations might be beneficial to China … For example, even when Europeans and Americans agree on the general goal of their China policy, such as economic and trade decoupling, disagreement or poor coordination over what to do can only ease the pressure on China,” Ghiselli explained.
“American tariffs, investment screening mechanisms, or export restrictions might look different from the European ones, and Beijing has always been very good at exploiting such gaps.”
Europe’s skepticism toward China
While Beijing may see an opportunity to strengthen ties with Europe, deep-rooted concerns among European nations regarding China’s geopolitical ambitions persist, largely linked to its close relationship with Russia and broader strategic interests.
According to Ghiselli, it remains difficult to determine whether China will actually benefit from the transatlantic divide.
“There are cracks in US-Europe relations, but they also share very deep ties. At the same time, Europe has its own real problems with China, including trade its relationship with Moscow. I believe it is very unlikely that China will suddenly substitute, even partially, the United States as Europe’s preferred partner,” he said.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, also emphasized Europe’s existing concerns about Beijing.
“Developments of recent days do not obviate the EU’s concerns about China, particularly Beijing’s deepening partnership with Moscow,” Wyne told Anadolu.
“They have, however, made Brussels newly alarmed over the state of the transatlantic alliance and given Beijing an opening to argue that the EU should partner with China to resist a more aggressive strain of ‘America First’ foreign policy,” he added.
China’s push for economic cooperation
At the Munich event, the Chinese foreign minister reiterated Beijing’s interest in deepening economic cooperation with Europe, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative and the EU’s Global Gateway strategy.
Analyst Einar emphasized that China is primarily focused on trade, rather than political or military alliances.
“Simply put, Wang Yi is saying the door is open, and we’re looking for fair trade. They’re not interested in any kind of defensive or offensive treaties or groupings or anything along those lines,” he said.
He further noted that China still favors a global economic order under the World Trade Organization (WTO), which the US has undermined by blocking appellate judges.
Beijing is also keen to collaborate with Europe on health, technology, consumer protection, data, and industrialization, but if “Europe doesn’t want to trade with China, China can’t make them,” he added.
“A lot of German car companies, for example, are now partnering voluntarily with Chinese EV makers so they can try to catch up in the global electric vehicle market,” Einar explained.
Wyne suggested that China might use this opportunity to “press to reopen negotiations with Brussels on the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which the latter suspended in May 2021.”
However, Ghiselli expressed skepticism about the prospects of any meaningful breakthrough in Sino-European cooperation.
While there is a clear gap between the new American administration and Europe, the gap with Beijing also remains substantial, he said.
“This is 2025, not the early 2000s when Europe looked at China as strategic economic and diplomatic partner in the face of American unilateralism. Europe has changed, and so did China,” said Ghiselli.
“The Chinese market is still important for European companies, but China itself is seen as much as a threat as it is a challenge.”
He also pointed out that Europe “faces a problem of economic competitiveness vis-a-vis both China and the US.”
“I doubt that any European leader looks at cooperation with China as a solution. Essentially, Europe, in my opinion, is not going to change its preferred partner. Rather, it is going to be more isolated,” he added.
China’s support for Europe on Ukraine
With Trump so far sidelining the EU from peace talks on Ukraine, analysts believe China’s backing of Europe could prove strategically beneficial.
“The two sides are on the same page in terms of peace. Both want peace, especially Europe,” said Einar.
“But they don’t want peace on the terms that Trump appears to be trying to force on them. China wants a peace that is lasting and, therefore, would believe that Europe has to be involved because it’s in their backyard. It is not a war on America’s border.”
He noted that while China is unlikely to lead peace talks, it believes Europe must be included in any negotiations.
From China’s perspective, all parties must be involved and “should serve as guarantors of mutual peace on both sides,” he said.
Will China replace the US as a global superpower?
On the question of whether China, the world’s second-largest economy, is on track to replace the US as the dominant global power, Einar said: “If the US alienates everyone, there will naturally be a shift toward China.”
He noted that China has already invested over $1 trillion into the Belt and Road Initiative, helping countries develop infrastructure and integrate into global trade networks.
“This is how China sees it – that the world can be a win-win situation. The US, on the other hand, sees it as a zero-sum game, where it wants to collect as much as possible.”
However, Wyne argued that China is unlikely to replace the US as the world’s leading power, as it confronts mounting growth headwinds and increasing pushback from advanced industrial democracies.
At the same time, Ghiselli pointed out that the US is undermining the very alliances and partnerships that have underpinned its dominance for decades, which is likely to present important opportunities for Chinese foreign policy.
“While the US might win tactical victories, such as forcing Panama to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative, China is well positioned to make gains at the strategic level by filling the vacuum left by the US and exploiting the backlash against American actions in Europe and the Global South,” he said.
However, given its domestic economic challenges, Ghiselli believes China is not necessarily trying to replace the US as the global hegemon.
“I believe that China would simply be more comfortable with a world in which liberal values are less dominant, which is something that the new Trump administration is already helping to bring about,” he added.
