The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3% from 3.1%, citing the impact of the Middle East war, elevated inflation pressures and risks from trade fragmentation.
In its updated World Economic Outlook report, titled “Global Economy at the Crosscurrents of War and Technology,” the IMF also raised its 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.2%.
The Fund said the moderate slowdown reflects the effects of the Middle East war, partly offset by demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle due to advances in artificial intelligence and wider adoption of the technology.
Global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027, indicating that the disinflation trend has stalled, the IMF said.
Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, with renewed escalation in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and a possible correction in technology-related expectations among key threats, according to the report.
The IMF kept its 2026 growth forecast for the US unchanged at 2.3%, while cutting the eurozone forecast to 0.9% from 1.1%.
China’s growth forecast was raised to 4.6% for this year from 4.4%, while India’s was lowered to 6.4% from 6.5%.
For Türkiye, the IMF forecast growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, compared with its April projections of 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively.
