Türkiye, İstanbul
The risk of a powerful El Nino developing later this year is rising, raising concerns that the climate phenomenon could amplify global warming and contribute to new temperature records, heatwaves, floods and droughts around the world.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance that El Nino conditions will emerge between June and August 2026. The phenomenon is expected to persist at least through November, with the probability estimated at close to or above 90%.
Columbia University has similarly projected a 98% likelihood of El Nino conditions during the May-July period.
Speaking to Anadolu, Yurdanur Unal, a faculty member in the Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering at the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics of Istanbul Technical University (ITU), said a strong El Nino occurring alongside long-term global warming could significantly increase the likelihood of extreme weather events.
“The world is already warming slightly every year because of greenhouse gas-driven climate change. When a strong El Nino is added on top of that, the climate system behaves as if it has received a boost, and temperature records can arrive one after another,” she said.
Scientists generally classify El Nino episodes in which sea surface temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above normal as “very strong El Nino” or “Super El Nino” events.
The last El Nino episode, which occurred in 2023-2024, coincided with record global temperatures, while previous Super El Nino events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 were also associated with major climate disruptions around the world.
El Nino alters weather patterns worldwide
Unal explained that El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels.
Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface waters toward the western Pacific. During El Nino events, however, those winds weaken, allowing warm waters to spread eastward and disrupting the Pacific Ocean’s normal temperature balance.
“This does not only change ocean temperatures,” Unal said. “El Nino can also alter atmospheric circulation on a global scale, triggering extreme weather events in different parts of the world.”
She noted that El Nino events typically begin developing between April and June, peak between October and February, and recur every two to seven years.
While some studies suggest very strong El Nino events could become more frequent in a warming climate, she said scientific uncertainty remains.
Greater risk of droughts, floods and heatwaves
Unal said a strong El Nino does not automatically lead to disasters, but it raises the likelihood of extreme weather conditions across many regions.
“A strong El Nino does not always produce destructive consequences. However, it increases the likelihood of droughts, excessive rainfall, floods and heatwaves,” she said.
Because warmer air can hold more moisture, she added, weather anomalies associated with El Nino can become more pronounced.
If global temperatures temporarily rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above pre-industrial levels under the influence of El Nino, scientists expect a greater risk of record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events.
Citing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) May 2026 assessment, Unal said there is a 96% probability that El Nino conditions will persist through next winter.
She added that El Nino’s strongest influence on global temperatures is often felt in the year after the phenomenon develops.
Human-driven warming remains main factor
While El Nino can temporarily boost global temperatures, Unal stressed that recent heat records cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone.
“The year 2016 was marked by a very strong El Nino and temperature records were broken at that time,” she said.
The WMO found that the period from 2015 to 2025 was the warmest on record globally.
However, 2023, 2024 and 2025 were the three warmest consecutive years on record despite temporary natural cooling cycles such as La Nina.
“The fact that years such as 2023, 2024 and 2025 have surpassed 2016 demonstrates how much stronger the long-term human-driven warming signal has become on top of natural climate variability,” she said.
“The primary driver of temperature records today is greenhouse gas-induced global climate change,” she added.
Limited direct impact on Türkiye
Despite El Nino’s global influence, Unal said its direct effects on Türkiye are generally limited.
She explained that temperature and precipitation patterns in Türkiye are shaped more strongly by the North Atlantic Oscillation and regional atmospheric systems than by conditions in the tropical Pacific.
“El Nino may affect Türkiye indirectly, but the signal is quite weak,” she said. “Therefore, it is not possible to observe a clear and statistically consistent change in temperature or precipitation in Türkiye during every El Nino event.”
“Regional and Atlantic-origin atmospheric processes play a much more significant role in shaping the country’s climate,” she said.
